Anyway I solve it by put a 0.1uF capacitor to ground on XRES pin.
There are many factors that cause this problem.
Is it the first time to program the board?
1： Test the Voltage on the VCCD?
2: Down the programming voltage to 1.8v.
3: Use the programming line less than 5 cm.
4: Check the device family, programming mode, connector(5 pin, 10 pin).
5: How many boards do you have? If you have more than one, is it the same performance?